Noise Cancelling with Neil Woodford

The UK has the highest industrial electricity prices in the developed world. British factories pay four times more than American ones. And Britain just banned exploration in the same North Sea basin where Norway is actively drilling.
In this episode, Neil Woodford explains why Britain's energy policy isn't just expensive — it's self-defeating. Industry is relocating to China, where it runs on coal and ships goods back on bunker fuel. The emissions didn't disappear. They moved somewhere with lower standards and a longer supply chain.
Meanwhile, Norway — drilling in the same geology — has a $1.7 trillion sovereign wealth fund. Britain has 7.5 days of gas storage.
We cover:— Why UK industrial electricity prices are 125% above the European median— How energy policy is driving a vicious circle: high costs, lost industry, wider trade deficit, weaker pound, costlier imports— The Norway contrast: same sea, same geology, opposite decisions— Why Britain has almost no gas storage and what that means when the Gulf goes up in flames— What this means for UK assets and where Neil sees the opportunity— Why Neil thinks this policy will inevitably reverse — and what happens when it does
Last week, we discussed how central banks can worsen energy shocks. Watch that episode here: https://youtu.be/Ee7ZEZMbOPw?si=sm2zBEEhoGlxTcIi
 

A landmark study by Ben Bernanke — the man who went on to run the Federal Reserve — found that it wasn't oil shocks that caused recessions. It was the interest rate hikes that followed. The central bank's reaction did more damage than the oil shock itself.
We call it the "double brake." The oil shock hits the economy first. Then the central bank raises rates on top. Two brakes on an economy already slowing down.
Right now, with the Strait of Hormuz closed, oil above $108, and gas fields burning in the Gulf, the Bank of England faces exactly this dilemma. The UK economy is growing at zero. Unemployment is at a 10-year high. Vacancies have collapsed below pre-pandemic levels. Wage growth is slowing. The conditions for a wage-price spiral do not exist.
And yet the Bank of England's cutting cycle has stalled — and some are calling for rate rises — because of an energy shock the Bank has no power to fix.
In this episode, Jon Adair and Neil Woodford explain the Bernanke research, apply it to the UK economy, and discuss what it means for anyone with a mortgage, savings, a pension, or investments in the UK.
Referenced in this episode: "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks" — Ben S. Bernanke, Mark Gertler, Mark Watson. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1:1997. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/1997/01/1997a_bpea_bernanke_gertler_watson_sims_friedman.pdf 

UK banks were the best-performing sector on the London Stock Exchange last year. Housebuilders had been climbing since September. Then the rate cut trade reversed in less than two weeks.
In this episode, we dig into what's actually driving the sell-off in UK domestic stocks — and whether the market has it right. We cover a 40-year-old behavioural finance concept called the disposition effect that explains why investors sell their winners in a panic. We look at Persimmon's results, the mortgage rate spike, and the complete reversal in Bank of England expectations. And we ask the big question: if your investment thesis can get blown up by an event nobody predicted, is there any point having a thesis at all?
This is not investment advice. All investments carry risk.
Read Neil's weekly analysis: https://www.woodfordviews.com

War has broken out between the US, Israel and Iran. The Dow dropped 600 points on Monday morning. Oil spiked. Gold surged. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. And every investor is asking the same question: what do I do?
In this episode, Neil Woodford — one of the most experienced fund managers in the UK — shares the 5-principle framework he uses to make investment decisions during a geopolitical crisis. We call it The Geopolitical Shock Playbook.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice. We are sharing how we think about markets during a crisis. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Why are markets so fragile right now? In this episode, Neil breaks down the one question most investors don’t ask clearly enough: what are you actually paying for when you buy a stock? We go back to first principles on valuation, explain the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio in plain English, and show why the starting valuation often determines your long-run returns.  
You’ll also see why high P/E doesn’t automatically mean “expensive” (and low P/E doesn’t automatically mean “cheap”), plus a surprising comparison between S&P 500 vs FTSE total returns and how differently those returns were achieved. 
New episodes every week. Subscribe so you don't miss the next one.
🔗 LINKSNeil's latest writing: https://www.woodfordviews.com Last week's episode — Why UK Stocks Could Be the Trade of the Yearhttps://youtu.be/nJ9o0WXocBM
 
What you’ll learn in this video• How to interpret P/E ratios and why they’re only the start of the analysis  • The difference between earnings and cash flow, and why both matter  • Why overpaying can lead to years of disappointment even when a business performs• How sentiment and valuation can dominate returns versus fundamentals  • A practical framework for thinking about growth expectations and valuation risk
⚠️ This content is for education and information only and is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consider speaking with a regulated adviser if you need personal recommendations.
If you’ve got a question you’d like us to cover in a future episode, email us at hello@w4pz.com.

UK unemployment just hit a five-year high. But hidden in the data is a £1.3 trillion consumer story that the Bank of England, the MPC and consensus economics are completely ignoring. Here's why it matters if you invest in UK stocks.
In this episode, Neil Woodford — one of the most experienced fund managers in British investing history — breaks down why he believes UK consumer spending is about to inflect, what the savings ratio doubling to 10% really means, and why interest rate cuts from the Bank of England could trigger a recovery almost nobody is pricing in.
We cover the five domino chain reaction from rate cuts to stock prices, the biggest household deleveraging in modern UK economic history, the ONS measurement scandal that makes UK productivity look far worse than it actually is, and what all of this means for domestic-facing UK equities — from banks to housebuilders to retailers.
If you watched last week's episode on UK regulatory reform, this is the other half of the story. The plumbing is being fixed. The fuel is about to flow.
New episodes every week. Subscribe and hit the bell so you don't miss the next one.
🔗 LINKSNeil's latest writing: https://www.woodfordviews.comLast week's episode — UK Regulatory Reform: https://youtu.be/8UV3F3_ptr0?si=Z9-QqUuOKOruKv4NIs It Time To Buy British?: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhexIETWueUBank of England Monetary Policy Report: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2026/february-2026

This week, Google raised $32 billion in debt in under 24 hours — including a billion-pound, 100-year sterling bond that was nearly ten times oversubscribed. The main buyers? UK pension funds and insurance companies.
The same institutions that have almost entirely abandoned British equities are now queuing up to fund Google's AI ambitions for the next century. In the same week, the London Stock Exchange itself became an activist investor target, its shares down 35%, barely functioning as an exchange at all.
In this episode, Neil and Jon trace the three regulatory decisions over 25 years that systematically broke the UK equity market — from pension accounting rules that forced the biggest owners to sell, to MiFID 2 destroying the research ecosystem that kept smaller companies alive, to the Brexit confidence shock that drove international investors out.
The numbers are stark. UK pension funds owned 32% of the market in 1992. Today: 1.5%. London accounted for 18% of global IPOs at its peak. Today: effectively zero. The market has lost 44% of its listed companies. More money now leaves through dividends and buybacks than arrives through capital raising.
But here's where it gets interesting. Neil argues that this two-decade wrecking ball has created a generational valuation opportunity. UK equities trade at 10-11x earnings against a US market at 25x. The historical relationship between starting valuations and subsequent returns — which holds with 75% accuracy over 50 years — predicts low double-digit annual returns from the UK over the next decade. The same relationship predicts the S&P 500 delivers pretty much zero.
 
Neil's articles referenced in this episode:
🔗 A Quarter Century of Damaging Reforms
🔗 Can the UK Equity Market Recover?
▶️ Is Now the Right Time to Buy UK Stocks?

$1 trillion wiped from software stocks in weeks. If you own a global tracker, S&P 500, or pension fund, you're probably exposed—here's what you need to know about the AI selloff and what to do next.
In this episode of Noise Cancelling, Neil Woodford breaks down:
Why Claude and AI coding tools are crushing software valuations
How your pension is exposed to tech stocks (even if you never bought any)
The Bank of England's rate decision—and why Neil thinks they got it wrong
Bitcoin's 40% crash: buying opportunity or death spiral?
Where Neil sees value when the S&P 500 looks stretched

Ray Dalio warns the monetary order is breaking down. Gold hits all-time highs. ASML & SK Hynix post record earnings. This week on Noise Cancelling, Neil Woodford breaks down what it means for your strategy.
We discuss whether the dollar is really dying, if gold and silver are in a bubble, and why the "picks and shovels" approach to AI investing is finally paying off. Plus: why UK equities remain dramatically undervalued, how to stress-test your investment strategy, and Warren Buffett's timeless advice on valuation.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. We're sharing how we think about markets. Always do your own research and consult a professional.

Neil Woodford predicted Trump's second year would be calmer. But in January alone, Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro has been captured, there's been talk of Greenland and Canada annexation, and Taiwan tensions continue to escalate – he was wrong. Yet his strategies still beat the market. What can we learn from Neil's way of thinking?
In this episode of Noise Cancelling, we dig into the psychology of being wrong as an investor, when to hold your nerve vs pivot your strategy, and what could actually happen to your portfolio if geopolitical tensions escalate further in 2026.
We cover:
Why Neil's geopolitical predictions didn't play out
The psychology of changing course vs staying the course
How to know when you're wrong vs just early
What happens if Trump actually moves on Greenland or Canada
Taiwan, TSMC and the semiconductor risk
Russia, Ukraine and the energy implications
Middle East scenarios and oil price impacts